Estimating age‐dependent survival from age‐aggregated ringing data—extending the use of historical records

Bird ring‐recovery data have been widely used to estimate demographic parameters such as survival probabilities since the mid‐20th century. However, while the total number of birds ringed each year is usually known, historical information on age at ringing is often not available. A standard ring‐recovery model, for which information on age at ringing is required, cannot be used when historical data are incomplete. We develop a new model to estimate age‐dependent survival probabilities from such historical data when age at ringing is not recorded; we call this the historical data model. This new model provides an extension to the model of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 by estimating the proportion of the ringed birds marked as juveniles as an additional parameter. We conduct a simulation study to examine the performance of the historical data model and compare it with other models including the standard and conditional ring‐recovery models. Simulation studies show that the approach of Robinson, 2010, Ibis, 152, 651–795 can cause bias in parameter estimates. In contrast, the historical data model yields similar parameter estimates to the standard model. Parameter redundancy results show that the newly developed historical data model is comparable to the standard ring‐recovery model, in terms of which parameters can be estimated, and has fewer identifiability issues than the conditional model. We illustrate the new proposed model using Blackbird and Sandwich Tern data. The new historical data model allows us to make full use of historical data and estimate the same parameters as the standard model with incomplete data, and in doing so, detect potential changes in demographic parameters further back in time.     

中国东北地区基于环志监测的田鹀迁徙趋势和数量动态北大核心CSCD

许多长距离迁徙的雀形目鸟类的种群数量正在持续下降,田鹀(Emberiza rustica)种群数量下降趋势更为突出。通过对田鹀种群数量长期监测和迁徙动态分析,可为此物种保护提供科学依据。从2001年开始,陆续在黑龙江省高峰、青峰、帽儿山、新青和大沾河,吉林省珲春和吉林市,辽宁省的辽宁鸟类研究中心(大连)和旅顺老铁山,以及内蒙古乌尔其汗鸟类栖息的临水林缘处布网环志。截至2018年,累计环志田鹀184181只,其中春季88571只,秋季95610只;各年度环志数量波动较大,总体呈现急速下降趋势。幼鸟的越冬损失率高达41.3%。田鹀106只次的回收信息表明,自然条件下田鹀寿命可达11年以上;日迁飞距离最快可达到300 km,飞行速度可达30 km/h。中国东北地区是田鹀等鸟类的重要迁徙途经地;田鹀的迁徙路线相对稳定,在瑞典北部繁殖的种群经中国东北地区迁徙到天津以南越冬。通过环志发现,近些年田鹀种群数量急速下降。通过比对,发现中国东北地区田鹀的环志数量变化趋势与瑞典的田鹀环志数量变化趋势相似;相对于环志数量最多的年份,环志数量下降95%以上,值得关注。栖息地破碎化、非法猎捕等是影响田鹀生存的主要受威胁因素。建议依据田鹀等鸟类生物学习性,加强鸟类栖息地的保护,坚持长期标准化的鸟类环志监测,进一步探索鸟类迁徙规律,以助于鸟类种群的恢复。     

Seasonal and interannual variations of ecosystem photosynthetic characteristics in a semi-arid grassland of Northern China

北方半干旱草原生态系统光合参数的季节和年际变异 生态系统表观量子效率(α)、最大光合速率(P_max)和暗呼吸速率(R_d)不仅反映了生态系统水平 光合生理特征,同时也是碳循环模型中光合过程模拟的关键参数。气候和植被因子都会影 响光合参数的季节和年际变异,但二者在光合参数调控过程中的相对贡献和作用途径尚不清晰。本研究基于连续12年(2006–2017)的涡度相关观测数据,分析了内蒙古半干旱典型草原光合参数的季节和年际变化规律;利用回归分析和结构方程模型(SEM)方法明晰了环境和生理调控的作用途径及相对贡献。结果发现,光合参数(α、P_max和R_d)均表现出单峰的季节变化趋势,并呈现明显的年际波动。温度(T_a)和土壤含水量(SWC)的变化共同影响光合参数的季节变化,而SWC主导了其年际变异。α和R_d的变化主要由T_a决定,而Pmax的变化主要受SWC的影响。SEM模型分析表明,除了直接作用外,环境因子主要通过影响冠层水平气孔导度(gc)对光合参数和碳同化生理过程进行调控。此外,叶面积指数对光合参数特别是Pmax的季节和年际变异起主要调控作用。以上结果明确了环境和植被共同决定了生态系统水平光合参数的季节和年际变异,并强调了在水分受限的草原生态系统中,植被生理调控在光合碳同化能力和碳汇功能评估中的重要作用。     

Identification of novel loci influencing refractive error in East Asian populations using an extreme phenotype design

The global “myopia boom” has raised significant international concerns. Despite a higher myopia prevalence in Asia, previous large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) were mostly based on European descendants. Here, we report a GWAS of spherical equivalent (SE) in 1852 Chinese Han individuals with extreme SE from Guangzhou (631 < ?6.00D and 574 > 0.00D) and Wenzhou (593 < ?6.00D and 54 > ?1.75D), followed by a replication study in two independent cohorts with totaling 3538 East Asian individuals. The discovery GWAS and meta-analysis identify three novel loci, which show genome-wide significant associations with SE, including 1q25.2 FAM163A, 10p11.22 NRP1/PRAD3, and 10p11.21 ANKRD30A/MTRNR2L7, together explaining 3.34% of SE variance. 10p11.21 is successfully replicated. The allele frequencies of all three loci show significant differences between major continental groups (P < 0.001). The SE reducing (more myopic) allele of rs10913877 (1q25.2 FAM163A) demonstrates the highest frequency in East Asians and much lower frequencies in Europeans and Africans (EAS = 0.60, EUR = 0.20, and AFR = 0.18). The gene-based analysis additionally identifies three novel genes associated with SE, including EI24, LHX5, and ARPP19. These results provide new insights into myopia pathogenesis and indicate the role of genetic heterogeneity in myopia epidemiology among different ethnicities.     

检测pT_(1-4a)N_(1-3)M_0期胃癌淋巴结微转移检测的临床意义

目的:探讨胃癌淋巴结微转移及临床病理因素对p T1-4aN1-3M0期胃癌患者术后5年无瘤生存率的影响。方法:选取我院2009年1月至12月期间胃肠外科单一手术组行D2胃癌根治术p T1-4aN1-3M0期患者63例1427枚HE染色阴性淋巴结,应用免疫组化法检测这些淋巴结中CK19表达,观察微转移的情况并分析发生微转移的胃癌患者临床病理特征及对患者5年无瘤生存率的影响。结果:临床病理分期p T1-4aN1-3M0胃癌患者中,经免疫组化染色,1427枚HE常规染色阴性淋巴结中CK19阳性表达率为15.49%(221/1427);63例胃癌患者中CK19表达阳性率39.68%(25/63);术后随访时间5.6~68.5月(平均时间43.88月),淋巴结中CK19阴性表达、阳性表达患者的总5年生存率分别为52.63%、28.00%;两者无瘤生存率差异有统计学意义(x2=8.677,P=0.003)。淋巴结CK19阳性表达与胃癌患者的肿瘤直径(P0.05)、浸润胃壁深度(P0.05)有关。COX生存回归分析显示淋巴结微转移为独立预后因素。25例患者发现淋巴结微转移并推荐再分期,再分期率39.68%(25/63)。结论:p T1-4aN1-3M0期胃癌病人,CK-19免疫组化法染色能检出常规HE染色阴性淋巴结中的微转移,有助于细化分期、判断预后及指导治疗。     

Tsunami impact on the population development of a critically endangered hummingbird species of a Pacific island

It is a long-standing question how tsunamis can influence wild populations of animals and plants. Here, we assessed short-term changes in the population of the critically endangered Juan Fernández Firecrown (Sephanoides fernandensis) by using abundance data recorded 1 year before and 1 year after the 2010 Chilean tsunami. We tested that the abundance of Firecrowns declined in the areas where the tsunami caused the massive loss of Cabbage Trees, an important seasonal nectar source for Firecrowns. The abundance of Juan Fernández Firecrowns decreased after the tsunami, but also was affected by the habitat type, altitude, and the abundance of Cabbage Trees. Firecrowns tended to be more abundant in settlement areas than in native forest whereas the reduction in Firecrown abundance after the tsunami was more intense in settlement areas than in native forest. As expected, this habitat effect was dependent on the massive loss of Cabbage Trees in settlement areas following the tsunami. In spite of the short-term nature of our data, our results are conclusive in showing that the loss of an important food source causes short-term changes in the distribution and abundance of Firecrowns, which, in turn, could contribute to population decline.     

Prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and variation in risk factors across four geographically diverse resource-limited settings in Peru

Background

It is unclear how geographic and social diversity affects the prevalence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). We sought to characterize the prevalence of COPD and identify risk factors across four settings in Peru with varying degrees of urbanization, altitude, and biomass fuel use.

Methods

We collected sociodemographics, clinical history, and post-bronchodilator spirometry in a randomly selected, age-, sex- and site-stratified, population-based sample of 2,957 adults aged ≥35 years (median age was 54.8 years and 49.3% were men) from four resource-poor settings: Lima, Tumbes, urban and rural Puno. We defined COPD as a post-bronchodilator FEV₁/FVC < 70%.

Results

Overall prevalence of COPD was 6.0% (95% CI 5.1%–6.8%) but with marked variation across sites: 3.6% in semi-urban Tumbes, 6.1% in urban Puno, 6.2% in Lima, and 9.9% in rural Puno (p < 0.001). Population attributable risks (PARs) of COPD due to smoking ≥10 pack-years were less than 10% for all sites, consistent with a low prevalence of daily smoking (3.3%). Rather, we found that PARs of COPD varied by setting. In Lima, for example, the highest PARs were attributed to post-treatment tuberculosis (16% and 22% for men and women, respectively). In rural Puno, daily biomass fuel for cooking among women was associated with COPD (prevalence ratio 2.22, 95% CI 1.02–4.81) and the PAR of COPD due to daily exposure to biomass fuel smoke was 55%.

Conclusions

The burden of COPD in Peru was not uniform and, unlike other settings, was not predominantly explained by tobacco smoking. This study emphasizes the role of biomass fuel use, and highlights pulmonary tuberculosis as an often neglected risk factor in endemic areas.